San Marino: Vilius Gaubas vs Thiago Monteiro

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Vilius Gaubas vs Thiago Monteiro at **100% YES**, so the contract is effectively treating Gaubas as already through on the current tape. On Polymarket, that means the USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token market is assigning almost no residual probability to any alternative resolution before the 7-day settlement window closes on the listed San Marino match. If the contest is later ruled unplayed, tied, or pushed beyond that window without a winner, the market would instead resolve 50-50 under the contract terms.

That reading is consistent with the pair’s recent head-to-head, which Monteiro has led 2-0 in completed meetings, including a straight-sets win at Bad Waltersdorf in September 2024 and a three-set win at Bastad in July 2025.[5][6] The Bastad match was competitive on the numbers: Monteiro won 52.9% of total points and converted 3 of 10 break points, while Gaubas held 75% of his service games but only 32.3% of return points.[3] Those results show why a 100% market price is unusual in a live tennis contract: it leaves no room for the sort of volatility that can come from surface, fitness, or mid-match momentum.

The practical catalysts are procedural rather than speculative: official start time, whether the quarter-final is actually played, any walkover or retirement ruling, and whether tournament scheduling slips into the settlement cutoff.[13] Because the market resolves on advancement rather than pure completion, a late withdrawal or incomplete match can matter as much as the scoreboard. A trader watching this contract should therefore track the San Marino draw, match-order updates, and any ATP/tournament communications closely, since the on-chain outcome will follow the event status, not the pre-match price.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.