National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the **Nicolas Mejia** side at **20% YES** in USDC on Polygon, so the contract is still treating Martin Landaluce as the clearer favourite. That sits alongside a first-round National Bank Open match that was originally listed for 2 August, with settlement depending on who actually advances, or reverting to **50-50** if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond the seven-day window without a winner.

The market is being read without any head-to-head history: the pair have never met before, and recent listings show Landaluce with the higher ATP ranking, around **63** versus Mejia near **131**. Flashscore notes that Mejia is making his first main-draw Masters appearance and is still **0-3** in main-draw hard-court matches at tour level, while Landaluce has a **14-11** record this season against players outside the top 100 and a **4-4** career mark in first-round Masters matches. Those facts help explain why the crowd has not pushed Mejia much above one-in-five.

For traders, the main catalysts are simple: official tournament scheduling, any delay caused by the Montreal draw or weather, and whether either player is withdrawn, walkovered or forced into a reschedule inside the seven-day settlement window. Tennis results pages have continued to list the fixture as a live first-round match, but the contract only settles on an actual advance, so a late change in start time or a cancellation matters as much as pre-match form.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.