US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill

Platform comparison

Market context

Francesco Passaro and Felix Gill were scheduled to meet in US Open men’s qualifying on 24 August, and the market is pricing Passaro as a full yes at 100%, implying the contract is effectively resolved unless the underlying event is delayed, cancelled or overturned by settlement rules. On Polymarket, the tradeable position sits on-chain in USDC on Polygon, with outcome shares represented by conditional tokens rather than a cash bet, so the live price reflects both match expectations and the market’s view of whether the fixture will be completed inside the resolution window.

That 100% print should be read against the usual behaviour of tennis qualification markets: once a player is either confirmed to have advanced or the other side is materially compromised by withdrawal, the contract can snap to an extreme and stay there until official draw and result updates are absorbed. The US Open qualifying draw listed Passaro and Gill in the men’s singles qualifying bracket, and live scoreboards also carried the pairing on Court 16, which helps explain why traders would have treated the market as nearly locked rather than as a pure pre-match opinion line.

The main catalysts now are administrative rather than speculative: any official match-status update, a change to the order of play, a walkover announcement, or a completed result posted by the tournament feed. Because the market resolves to 50-50 if the match is not played or no winner is determined by 7 September, the settlement risk sits in scheduling and completion rather than in tennis handicapping alone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

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