Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Match O/U 22.5 | 99% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Set 2 Winner | 96% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia | 62% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia. This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Nicolas Mejia in the Canadian Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
This page reviews Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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