Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok | 100% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: Facundo Perlov vs Denis Klok. This market refers to the tennis match between Facundo Perlov and Denis Klok in the ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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