Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Mirra Andreeva faces Jil Teichmann in a Roland Garros women's singles match scheduled for 31 May 2026. The 90% implied probability favouring Andreeva's advancement reflects her trajectory as a rising junior talent who has demonstrated consistent progress through WTA rankings, whilst Teichmann has experienced a more volatile career arc marked by injury setbacks and variable form. The 10% probability assigned to Teichmann represents genuine uncertainty rather than dismissal—she remains capable of producing strong performances on clay, her preferred surface, and has previously upset higher-ranked opponents in Grand Slam contexts.

Historical precedent suggests caution when reading such skewed probabilities in early-round Grand Slam matches. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair, similar matchups involving young prospects against experienced players typically show wider probability spreads (65–75% rather than 90%) when injury status remains ambiguous or recent form data is incomplete. Kalshi's stricter KYC requirements and lower trading volumes on tennis markets often result in less efficient pricing than Betfair's decimal odds format, which aggregates deeper liquidity. Smarkets' commission structure (4% versus Polymarket's 2%) can shift break-even thresholds by 2–3 percentage points on outcomes this heavily favoured.

Traders should monitor official Roland Garros draw confirmations and any late withdrawal announcements, particularly regarding Teichmann's fitness status given her historical injury concerns. Court assignments and weather delays—common at Roland Garros—could trigger the settlement window's 7-day extension clause, which would resolve the market at 50-50 if no winner emerges by 7 June 2026.

Methodology

This page compares Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative UK?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.