Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 77% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Match O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Match O/U 21.5 | 41% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Match O/U 23.5 | 39% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Set 2 Winner | 25% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang | 13% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang. This market refers to the tennis match between Julieta Pareja and Xinyu Wang in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 28, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Julieta P…
Methodology
This page reviews Mubadala Citi DC Open: Julieta Pareja vs Xinyu Wang across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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