Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson | 0% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Elizara Yaneva and Gabriela Knutson in the Warsaw, originally scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elizara Yaneva' if…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Warsaw: Elizara Yaneva vs Gabriela Knutson on Polymarket Alternative UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →