Highest temperature in Ankara on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Ankara temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, with the market settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. The relevant real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Esenboğa International Airport on 27 July, and the resolution source is Wunderground’s daily history page for that station, so the trade is really about what the airport sensor prints by the end of the day rather than Ankara’s citywide feel.

That zero price reflects how late in the day it is and how little time remains for a late heat spike to change the outcome. Ankara’s July climate is hot by European standards, with a typical daily high around **31°C** and generally clear conditions, which means the distribution already leans towards warm outcomes rather than cool ones.[2] Current BBC Weather conditions show **15°C**, but that is a snapshot of the morning and not the day’s eventual maximum.[3] For market users, the key point is that the contract resolves on the specific airport reading, so the only thing that matters is whether the station reaches the relevant Celsius band before the daily close on Wunderground.

A trader watching the last hours would focus on the local forecast trend, cloud cover, wind and any abrupt synoptic change over central Turkey, because those are the practical drivers of the airport maximum. Forecast guidance for Ankara also points to July being broadly dry, with low average rainfall and plenty of sunshine, which reduces the chance of weather interruption but does not guarantee a particular peak temperature.[2] In other words, the live question on Polymarket is not whether Ankara is a hot city in July, but whether the airport instrument posts a number high enough to land in the contract’s winning range before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Ankara on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.