Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract pinned to **86–87°F**, and the market is pricing that band at **100%** on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon. Because the exchange resolves from the highest temperature at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport on 1 August 2026, the relevant question for a user is not whether Atlanta feels hot, but whether the airport’s recorded daily maximum lands in that exact bin on Wunderground’s historical feed.

The historical frame points strongly towards mid-to-upper 80s or low 90s rather than an extreme outlier. Atlanta’s August daily highs are typically in the upper 80s to low 90s, with record highs for early August reaching 99°F on 1 August in one long-run climate series, while the citywide all-time peak is 106°F in June 2012.[2][5][10] Recent summers also show that Atlanta can still print 100°F during peak heat, with the National Weather Service listing 100°F at Atlanta in summer 2024 and 95°F in August 2025, but those are broader seasonal signals rather than direct evidence for 1 August 2026.[12][4]

For traders, the key catalysts are the actual airport observation and any late data revision before the next day’s first datapoint is published, since Polymarket states that revisions within the market window count until then.[1] In practice, the main inputs are the day’s heat index setup, cloud cover, storms, and whether the airport station’s official maximum is nudged by afternoon convection or held down by clouds and rain. The contract’s payoff is mechanical: once the Wunderground record finalises, conditional tokens tied to the correct range settle at $1, while the rest expire worthless.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.