Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The resolution uses Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station, measured in Fahrenheit, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC. Across major platforms, this market reveals structural differences: Polymarket displays implied probability directly, whilst Kalshi and Betfair present decimal odds requiring conversion; Polymarket's fee structure applies uniformly across weather markets, whereas Smarkets charges variable commission based on odds, potentially affecting edge calculations on temperature ranges with lower liquidity.

Atlanta's May climate typically produces highs between 78–88°F, with historical May 25 temperatures clustering around 82–85°F based on thirty-year normals from the National Weather Service. The 0% crowd probability suggests either sparse trading activity or strong consensus against extreme temperature outcomes. Traders should note that late May in Georgia occasionally experiences early heat waves; the 2023 May period saw several days exceed 90°F across the Southeast, though such events remain statistically uncommon for this specific date.

No major weather pattern announcements or climate forecasts currently drive near-term volatility for this market. Seasonal atmospheric patterns and potential tropical system activity in late May represent the primary catalysts; however, with settlement eighteen months distant, meaningful forecast data will only emerge in the weeks preceding the event. Current liquidity appears minimal across all platforms, suggesting wider spreads and reduced trading depth compared to near-term weather markets.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.