Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** right now, so the market is effectively saying traders do not see a realistic path to a top Beijing reading landing in the relevant outcome band on 10 August. On Polymarket, that view is expressed through USDC-backed positions on Polygon via conditional tokens, so the price reflects where participants are willing to fund exposure rather than a forecast from the exchange itself[14].

For context, Beijing’s August temperatures are usually hot enough to keep the upper bands in play, but not uniformly extreme. Independent weather-history pages put normal August highs around 31-35°C, with individual 10 August readings in recent years clustering in the low 30s and occasional spikes higher; for example, historical August tables and day-by-day archives show highs around 31-34°C on comparable dates, with broader August records reaching the mid-30s Celsius[6][9][17]. That means the current zero price is far below what would normally be implied by Beijing’s seasonal pattern, especially for a peak-temperature market settled on a single day’s maximum.

The main catalyst is the live observation stream from Weather Underground’s Beijing Capital International Airport station, because this market settles on the **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary panel if the two differ[2][15]. Traders should watch the intraday temperature path through the settlement window, since a late-afternoon maximum can still move the outcome band, and Beijing’s forecast pages already point to a hot, sunny day with mid-90s Fahrenheit highs and low rain risk, which is broadly consistent with a 30s Celsius outcome[13][16][18].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.