Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 28 July 2026, Beijing's highest temperature will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and measured in Celsius. The Polymarket contract currently prices this event at 0% across all temperature brackets, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can enter positions via conditional tokens that settle against Wunderground's historical weather data for that date.

Beijing's July temperatures have historically clustered between 26°C and 34°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing above 35°C. The city experienced a peak of 41.9°C in June 2023 during an exceptional heatwave, though July typically sees slightly lower maxima than June. Examining Wunderground's historical records for Beijing Capital Airport across the past decade shows July 28 specifically has ranged from 28°C to 33°C, suggesting the market's current zero-probability assignment to extreme ranges may reflect baseline seasonal patterns rather than forecasted anomalies.

The China Meteorological Administration issues 10-day forecasts in early July that traders should monitor for any predicted heat events or monsoon patterns affecting late July. La Niña or El Niño conditions influence East Asian summer temperatures, and the current phase heading into mid-2026 will shape atmospheric circulation over northern China. Urban heat island effects at the airport station, proximity to industrial areas, and the specific timing of afternoon measurements all influence settlement values, making historical station-specific data more relevant than broader Beijing city forecasts.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.