Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once morning conditions become apparent. This market sits at 0% implied probability across the major platforms, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

May temperatures in Beijing typically range between 20–30°C, with occasional peaks above 32°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past five years shows late May averages around 27–28°C, though 2020 recorded a high of 35.6°C on 25 May specifically. The current zero probability reading likely reflects either a technical listing issue or traders awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital. Kalshi and Betfair tend to show tighter spreads on weather markets than Polymarket due to their institutional participation, whilst Smarkets' decimal odds format can obscure implied probabilities for casual traders unfamiliar with the conversion.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early May, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Any significant weather systems—monsoon onset, dust storms, or unusual high-pressure systems—would shift the distribution materially. The absence of current trading activity suggests this market may lack sufficient interest to generate reliable pricing until nearer the resolution date, when actual weather models become more deterministic.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.