Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Buenos Aires’ temperature at Minister Pistarini International Airport on 22 May is a late-autumn read, and the market settles on the day’s observed maximum before midday UTC. The current 0% YES pricing on Polymarket is consistent with the city’s seasonal norm: average May highs are around 16°C, with typical daily maxima falling into the low teens by the last week of the month. Nearby weather services also point to a modest range rather than an extreme move, with the World Weather Information Service showing 7°C to 13°C for 22 May and 9°C to 15°C for 23 May, which would put any final observation in the colder end of the usual band.

For traders comparing venues, Polymarket’s crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, whereas Kalshi-style books would usually show the same event through decimal prices rather than an explicit probability, and Betfair or Smarkets would add liquidity and commission effects to the realised price. The main practical difference is access: Polymarket is crypto-settled and typically lighter on KYC friction, while regulated exchanges generally require fuller identity checks and local eligibility, but may offer deeper traditional-market liquidity. On this specific market, the key comparison is not the headline price alone but whether other books are already discounting the chance of a warm outlier more or less aggressively.

The main catalyst is the terminal weather forecast for Ezeiza, not a scheduled policy event. If the day stays under stable cloud cover or a cool southerly flow, the maximum can remain near the lower end of the forecast range; a brief afternoon clearing could lift the reading, but the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, which limits the time available for any later warming to matter. Traders should watch final-hour updates from Wunderground and the local forecast cycle, because a small shift in the forecast high can move these range markets quickly even when the broader probability picture looks one-sided.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 22? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.