Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Busan temperature contract at **0% YES**, even though the market will settle on the highest reading at Gimhae Intl Airport Station on 1 August 2026, taken from Wunderground and expressed in Celsius via the contract’s range bands. Because settlement depends on a single daily maximum rather than an average, traders are effectively buying exposure to an intraday spike in a very humid summer climate, with USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon reflecting that view on-chain.

Historical context points to a market that is usually straightforward in August, but not trivial on hot days. Busan’s August climate is typically around the mid-20s Celsius at night and high-20s to low-30s Celsius by day, with average highs near 84–87°F and a muggy coastal profile[2][4][6][14]. At the same time, recent reporting has shown that Busan can occasionally break far above seasonal norms: on 29 July 2026, the city reportedly reached 38.8°C, the hottest reading since records began in 1904[17]. That makes the current 0% pricing look like an extreme underweighting of tail risk rather than a statement that high temperatures are impossible.

A trader should watch the day’s weather setup, especially heat advisories, cloud cover, rainfall timing, sea-breeze effects, and whether the hottest hour lands before the market’s noon UTC settlement window closes. The key dependency is not the city headline temperature but the specific Gimhae airport station reading on Wunderground, so late-morning developments can matter more than the general Busan forecast. Korea’s meteorological coverage has already flagged unusually hot conditions in the region, with Busan among the cities expected to remain around 34°C in recent heatwave reporting[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.