Highest temperature in Busan on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan's highest temperature on 18 August 2026 will be measured at Gimhae International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring against that specific data source rather than any summary figures. The market currently prices this contract at 0% across all temperature bands, reflecting either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or thin liquidity in the early stages of the contract lifecycle on Polygon. USDC holders can acquire conditional tokens representing different temperature ranges, with the winning band determined solely by the Daily Observations entry at the resolution timestamp.

August temperatures in Busan consistently exceed 28°C, with historical records showing daily highs typically ranging between 29–32°C during mid-August. The city's coastal location moderates extreme heat compared to inland Korean regions, though humidity levels remain elevated. Previous years' data from Gimhae station shows only rare instances of temperatures below 27°C or exceeding 34°C in this period, establishing a relatively narrow historical band for traders to calibrate expectations.

Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, as August remains within typhoon season for the Korean peninsula. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer 2026 could shift baseline temperatures, whilst any unusual atmospheric patterns would likely be flagged in KMA advisories by late July. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 18 August, requiring traders to account for the time-zone offset between Korean Standard Time and the contract's UTC timestamp.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 18? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.