Highest temperature in Busan on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **0% YES** for the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport in Busan on 6 August, with shares settled in USDC on Polygon and redeemable through the relevant conditional tokens if the chosen temperature band matches the Wunderground history page. With the window closing at 12:00 UTC, the contract is still a pure late-day temperature call rather than a broad weather view, so the key variable is the day’s eventual maximum rather than the morning start or overnight minimum.

The historical frame points to a city that is warm, humid, and capable of sharp spikes when heat builds inland. Busan’s August average high is about 28–30°C, but the city has also printed extreme readings well above that in recent years, including 38.8°C in a record-setting heat episode. Recent coverage of the current Korean heatwave noted Busan among the cities pushed into the high 30s, while forecasts for 6 August put Busan around the low 30s, with one outlook showing 31°C/26°C and another expecting up to 33°C. That leaves the market’s present zero price vulnerable if the station reaches the sort of upper-30s outcome seen during past heat surges, but it also reflects how often coastal moderation keeps the day below exceptional thresholds.

For traders, the main catalysts are the morning forecast updates, any heat advisories from Korean meteorological services, and the realised inland-to-coastal temperature gradient through the afternoon, since Busan’s airport station can lag the city centre when sea breeze strengthens. The market is most sensitive to whether the regional heat dome remains intact after sunrise; if nearby southern cities stay extreme, that increases the chance Busan’s midday maximum pushes into higher bands. The settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history for Gimhae Intl Airport, so the final print will depend on the station’s recorded daily high rather than headline city forecasts alone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Busan on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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