Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket's conditional token structure currently prices a July 28th peak temperature in Busan at precisely 0% across all available ranges, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. The settlement mechanism relies on Gimhae International Airport's recorded high, which serves as the official meteorological reference point for South Korea's second-largest city. Traders accessing this market via USDC on Polygon will need to monitor how the probability distribution shifts as the date approaches, since the current flat pricing leaves substantial room for repricing once atmospheric conditions become more predictable.

Historical July temperatures in Busan cluster between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks exceeding 33°C during heat waves. The city's maritime location moderates extremes compared to inland Korean regions, though the monsoon season (June–August) creates volatile conditions. Looking at comparable years, the Korea Meteorological Administration recorded Busan highs of 31.2°C on July 28th, 2022 and 30.8°C on the same date in 2019, establishing a baseline for what constitutes typical versus exceptional heat.

Traders should monitor the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system's positioning in late July, as this drives Korean peninsula temperatures. The KMA issues extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead, with meaningful refinement occurring five to seven days before settlement. Any tropical cyclone activity affecting the Korean peninsula would substantially alter atmospheric conditions and shift probability distributions across temperature bands. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on July 28th, leaving only morning observations from Gimhae Airport to determine the final resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Busan on July 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.