Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 18 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport determining settlement. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES across the board on Polygon, suggesting either incomplete liquidity or a technical issue with conditional token pricing on USDC pairs. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when automated weather stations report readings at irregular intervals throughout the day.

Chengdu's August temperatures have historically clustered between 32–37°C, with extreme heat events pushing toward 40°C roughly once per decade. The city's location in the Sichuan Basin creates a heat-trapping effect, and August marks the tail end of the East Asian summer monsoon season. Comparable August days from 2015–2023 show the 35–38°C range capturing roughly 60% of observations, whilst readings above 38°C occur in approximately 25% of years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be awaiting clearer weather forecasts or awaiting resolution source confirmation before committing capital.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks released in July 2026, which typically forecast monsoon intensity and heat dome positioning across central China. Any El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through early 2026 could shift August temperatures materially. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 18 August, creating a narrow window for final observations; traders should verify Wunderground's data refresh schedule and any potential station maintenance that might affect readings on the settlement date itself.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.