Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Chengdu airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively assigning no chance that the day’s official high lands in the relevant range. The event itself is the **highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on 2 August 2026**, with settlement based on the Wunderground daily history page and the station’s maximum reading in Celsius; on Polymarket, the position is held through **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the contract’s payoff determined by the final conditional-token resolution rather than by any subjective forecast.

That zero price sits against a weather backdrop that is usually hot, humid and often rain-affected in Chengdu in August. Long-run climate references put typical August highs around **29–31°C**, with average daytime highs near **30°C** and occasional spikes into the mid-30s, while showers and thunderstorms are common enough to interrupt the heat without always suppressing the day’s peak. In other words, the market is not pricing the city’s broader August climate so much as the chance that today’s airport maximum matches one of the contract’s exact temperature bands, which can make even a warm day resolve outside the obvious “hot weather” intuition.

A trader watching this market would mainly track the day’s local forecast evolution, especially whether cloud cover or rainfall arrives early enough to cap the afternoon maximum, versus any break in the weather that could let the airport station climb quickly after midday. The key dependency is the **airport station’s** official reading, not the broader city average, so a short-lived clearing, timing of convection, or a sudden thunderstorm can matter more than the general Chengdu forecast. Since settlement is tied to the Wunderground history record, the relevant on-chain consideration is simply whether the final reported Celsius high at that station falls inside the market’s range when the contract resolves.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.