Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at **0% YES**, so the market is currently implying no meaningful chance that Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport logs a top daily temperature in the contract’s target range on 27 July. Settlement is tied to the *highest* temperature recorded on Wunderground for that station, and the payout is handled through Polymarket’s usual USDC, Polygon, conditional-token setup, so traders are really positioning around an official airport-observation print rather than a citywide forecast.

For context, Chengdu in late July is typically hot and humid, with published July guides citing average highs around **30°C** and substantial rainfall, which can cap daytime extremes even when skies clear briefly.[3] Nearby current weather reporting shows Chengdu around **24°C** with elevated humidity, a reminder that realised maxima can differ materially from the daily average and from broader city forecasts.[1] Market prices near zero therefore reflect either a very high strike band or a belief that today’s observed maximum will land below the resolved range.

The main trader focus is the day’s actual temperature trajectory at the airport, especially any short afternoon heat spike before cloud build-up or showers. Generic 14-day local forecasts have recently pointed to highs in the **mid-30s°C** at times, but the market resolves on the airport station’s peak reading, not the city forecast headline.[2] For Polymarket users, the practical dependency is simple: once the airport observation posts on Wunderground, that becomes the basis for settlement, so late-day weather shifts matter more than broader seasonal averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.