Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing will experience peak summer heat on 20 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Jiangbei International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently prices at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting the substantial uncertainty inherent in forecasting a specific day's maximum temperature nearly two years in advance. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when hourly readings occasionally diverge from headline high-low ranges.

Historical August temperatures in Chongqing show consistent patterns worth examining. The city regularly records daily maxima between 32–36°C during mid-August, with occasional spikes above 37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2022 summer saw Chongqing experience several days exceeding 40°C, though such extremes remain outliers rather than the norm. August typically sits within the hottest months of the year, with humidity levels compounding the heat stress index. These precedents suggest the most probable outcome clusters around the 33–37°C bands, though tail-risk scenarios above 38°C warrant consideration given climate variability.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasting updates released by China's Meteorological Administration in the months preceding August 2026, particularly their summer outlook issued in May. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through 2025–2026 could materially shift temperature distributions across East Asia. Additionally, any documented changes to Jiangbei Airport's measurement equipment or station relocation would affect historical comparability. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 August, requiring traders to account for timezone conversion between UTC and Chongqing local time.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Is this market available outside the US?

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

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