Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Chongqing airport temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, so the market is effectively saying that a reading in the YES band is not expected for the station’s highest temperature on 4 August. Because settlement uses the **Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station** reading from Wunderground and resolves in **USDC** through Polygon conditional tokens, the key practical question is not whether Chongqing is hot in general, but which exact daily maximum bucket the airport observation ultimately lands in.

August is normally Chongqing’s peak heat season, which makes the market’s zero price notable but not impossible. Long-run climate pages put Chongqing’s August average daytime high around **34°C**, with days above **40°C** described as common, while station-based forecasts for the airport have already shown August daily highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C and occasional pushes towards the mid-30s or higher. Comparable years therefore frame this as a market where the outcome depends on whether the airport’s official maximum is merely hot, or hot enough to break into the upper temperature range the contract is testing.

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s local weather evolution, especially cloud cover, rainfall, and thunderstorm timing around the airport, rather than broader city forecasts alone. Chongqing in August is typically humid and rainy, with multiple forecast providers flagging patchy rain or showers around early August, which can cap the daytime maximum if storms arrive early, or allow a sharp spike if sun and heat hold through the afternoon. The thing to watch on Polymarket is the live repricing as new airport forecasts, late-morning observations, and any rain alerts come in, since the contract settles on the single highest temperature recorded that day, not an average.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.