Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the contract with a **39°C** outcome in front at **42%**, with **38°C** next at **31%**, so the market is leaning towards another very hot Chongqing reading rather than a more moderate one.[3] For users trading on USDC via Polygon, the practical question is whether the day’s realised high at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport lands in the Celsius band that matches the eventual Wunderground figure used for settlement.[3]

That pricing sits comfortably inside Chongqing’s late-July climate profile. July is typically one of the city’s hottest and wettest periods, with travel guidance describing it as “extremely hot” and rainy, averaging about **33°C** highs, **188 mm** of rainfall, and several thunderstorms across the month.[1] Broader seasonal guidance also places May to September in the rainy season, when most of the annual rainfall arrives, which matters because cloud cover and storm outflows can cap intraday highs even during a hot spell.[2] For a prediction market user, that means the distribution is naturally skewed high, but the exact settlement bucket still depends on whether heat builds cleanly before afternoon convection or gets checked by showers.

The catalysts worth watching are local weather developments rather than policy or event risk: cloud cover, rainfall timing, and any thunderstorm line crossing the airport forecast area before the daily maximum is set. As of the current market snapshot, the crowd is already anchoring around the upper 30s, so any shift in forecast guidance towards heavier rain would mainly pressure the 39°C and 40°C bands, while a drier, sunnier forecast would support the top end.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.