Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, Dallas Love Field Station will record a daily high temperature in Fahrenheit, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing all outcome ranges at zero probability—a technical artefact of the market's early stage rather than a genuine forecast. The settlement mechanism pulls historical data directly from Weather Underground's archive for that specific station, eliminating ambiguity around which thermometer reading counts. USDC collateral sits on Polygon, with conditional token splits determining payouts once the day concludes and the highest recorded temperature falls into one of the predefined ranges.

Dallas summer temperatures typically peak between 95°F and 100°F in late July, based on thirty-year normals from the National Weather Service. The city's record high for July stands at 103°F, set in 1954, though readings above 100°F occur roughly once per decade during this month. Comparable July 27th observations from recent years—2023 reached 96°F, 2022 hit 97°F—suggest the most probable outcome clusters in the 94–99°F band, yet traders have assigned zero weight across all ranges, indicating either illiquidity or delayed market activation rather than genuine uncertainty about whether Dallas will experience a measurable high temperature that day.

The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts beginning roughly ten days before 27 July 2026, with confidence increasing as the settlement window approaches. La Niña or El Niño conditions, if active during northern hemisphere summer 2026, could shift typical patterns, though such oscillations rarely push Dallas July highs beyond the 100–103°F ceiling. Traders monitoring the forecast updates from mid-July onwards will gain clearer signal on whether atmospheric conditions favour the historical median or an outlier extreme.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.