Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Guangzhou airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying there is no bid for a qualifying high temperature band at the moment. The settlement will follow the **highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on 1 August 2026**, as published on Wunderground, with traders holding the contract through **USDC on Polygon** via conditional tokens that resolve once the observed daily maximum is known.

That 0% reading is easier to interpret against Guangzhou’s August climate than in isolation. Long-run climate data put the city’s August average high around **32–33°C**, with typical daily highs in the low 30s and occasional hotter spikes; some historical summaries show mean August highs near **33°C** and warmest-day readings well above that in past years. In other words, the market is currently discounting even the sort of hot-but-normal outcome that Guangzhou sees most summers, which is unusual unless liquidity is thin or the relevant temperature bands are mispriced.

For a trader, the main catalysts are not policy announcements but the weather stack: the day’s forecast trend, any rain-bearing systems, and whether cloud cover or thunderstorms suppress the airport station’s peak before the settlement window closes at noon UTC. Guangzhou’s August weather is often humid and rain-prone, so a forecast shift late on 31 July or early on 1 August can matter more than the monthly average. The key operational check is the Wunderground history page for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, since that is the source Polymarket says will determine the result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.