Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES**, which leaves the market implying that nobody is assigning any meaningful chance to Guangzhou Baiyun Airport recording a day-high within the relevant resolution range on 4 August. On Polymarket, buyers post and trade **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the event represented by conditional tokens that settle against the Wunderground station reading, so the practical question is whether the airport’s top temperature lands in the specified band before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

For context, Guangzhou’s August climate normally sits in the low 30s Celsius, with forecasts for this month clustering around 89–93°F, or roughly 32–34°C.[1][12][16] The official Guangdong forecast issued this morning puts Guangzhou at **25–32°C** with moderate rain becoming overcast, while the airport station itself has already been observed around **30°C** with high humidity.[2][8] That combination matters because the market resolves to the highest reading at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, not the citywide forecast, so traders should watch the station’s intraday peak rather than the broader municipal temperature range.[2][8]

The main catalysts are straightforward: the day’s hourly evolution, whether rain suppresses the afternoon high, and any fresh local forecasts or aviation weather updates that shift expectations for the airport specifically.[2][18] Comparable August references from travel and forecast services consistently describe Guangzhou as hot, humid and rainy, with daily highs often around 33°C and occasional spikes higher, including a historical August 4 figure of 35.5°C in one climate summary.[3][14][15][19] For holders of the token, the key mechanical point is that only the highest temperature recorded on Wunderground for the airport station on 4 August 2026 will matter at settlement, so late-day cooling does not undo an earlier spike.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.