Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices the Guangzhou airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying it sees no meaningful chance of the day’s high landing in the specified settlement band, even though the outcome will be determined later by the highest Celsius reading posted for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on Wunderground. Settlement runs through the full day on 27 July 2026 and, because the market resolves from the station’s recorded daily maximum rather than a citywide average, a single hot afternoon observation can matter more than the broader forecast.

For context, Guangzhou in July is normally a **hot, humid, rain-prone** setting, with typical highs around 34°C and July rainfall concentrated across many days. Long-range forecasts for late July show highs broadly in the **33°C to 37°C** range, which is the sort of band traders usually benchmark against when pricing temperature markets on Polygon with USDC-backed conditional tokens. That means the contract’s value is less about the calendar month and more about whether cloud cover, showers or a clear break allow the airport station to print an unusually high maximum.

The main catalysts are the same practical ones a Polymarket user watches in weather markets: the hourly forecast trend, the timing of afternoon convection, and any shift in rain intensity around the airport. With no special announcement risk, the key dependency is the local meteorological set-up near Baiyun Airport, because a brief late-day spike or a wet, overcast session can move the recorded high decisively. Users should also keep an eye on whether updates from the official Wunderground history page are being reflected promptly, since that source is the settlement reference.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.