Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is pricing **0% YES** for a Guangzhou airport high temperature that lands in the winning range, and on a USDC/Polygon market that means traders are effectively saying the settlement band is not being targeted by the day’s observed maximum. The market resolves off the **highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on 31 July 2026**, so the relevant number is the airport’s daily peak on the Wunderground history page rather than a citywide average or a forecast elsewhere.

The historical frame is straightforward: July in Guangzhou is typically hot, humid, and prone to showers, with July averages around the low 30s Celsius and frequent highs near 33°C to 36°C in published climate guides.[3][15][17][20] Current forecast products also point to a warm, unsettled day, with daytime highs around 34°C to 37°C and thunderstorms or showers listed for 31 July.[2][6][7] For a temperature-range market, that supports keeping an eye on whether the airport’s actual maximum ends up close to the mid-30s, since small differences of a degree or two can shift the winning bucket.

A trader watching the tape should focus on live airport observations through the day, because the settlement source is a station-level daily extreme, not a forecast snapshot.[4][8][11] The main catalysts are the timing of any afternoon convection, cloud cover, and whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak before the midday-to-afternoon heating window closes.[2][6] On Polymarket, positions are still just conditional tokens held on-chain, so price moves will usually reflect fresh weather updates rather than any change to the settlement mechanics themselves.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.