Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius, and Polymarket traders are currently pricing zero probability that this figure will fall into the highest temperature bracket offered by the market. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" reading published in its Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place. USDC collateral on Polygon will be distributed according to whichever temperature range resolves as correct once the data becomes available after the settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date.

Hong Kong's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 31°C and 34°C. The Observatory's records show that extreme heat days—those exceeding 35°C—occur irregularly in August, roughly once every five to ten years on average. The current 0% probability assigned to the highest bracket suggests traders believe a genuinely exceptional reading is unlikely, though this reflects market consensus rather than meteorological impossibility. Comparable August dates in recent years have seen maxima cluster in the 32–34°C range, with only occasional excursions above 35°C.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any heat-wave alerts issued in early August 2026. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during that period could either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or, conversely, drive extreme heat if high-pressure systems dominate. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks in advance; these will be the primary catalyst for any meaningful repricing before settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.