Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market settles on that single data point once the Observatory finalises its daily extract and publishes the absolute daily maximum. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution may lag if the Observatory delays finalisation of its climate records.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early heat waves. Historical data from the Observatory shows that daily maxima in late May cluster around 30–31°C in most years, though outlier events—such as the 36.1°C recorded on 22 May 2012—remain within living memory. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to appear or treating this as a placeholder market pending clearer odds. Kalshi and Betfair's decimal-odds formats may display this differently from Polymarket's binary structure, affecting how traders perceive tail-risk pricing on extreme temperature thresholds.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in early May 2026, as these directly influence temperature trajectories. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and extended outlooks; any advisory of an early monsoon shift or heat dome would shift expectations upward. Cross-referencing with regional meteorological bodies and historical analogue years—particularly 2012 and 2015, when May heat spiked—provides context for assessing whether range boundaries reflect realistic tail probabilities or market inefficiency across platforms.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.