Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in Celsius, and this market will settle to whichever range bracket contains that figure. The settlement window closes at noon UTC that day, meaning traders must await the Observatory's official daily extract publication before resolution can occur. The 0% crowd probability reflects either low trading volume or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will be hit; across major platforms, this type of niche weather market typically shows wider spreads and lower liquidity than headline events, with Kalshi and Polymarket handling such contracts differently—Kalshi's regulatory framework in the US sometimes restricts weather derivatives to specific US locations, whilst Polymarket's offshore structure permits broader geographical coverage, though both charge taker fees (Kalshi around 2%, Polymarket variable by market depth).

Hong Kong's May temperatures are seasonally warm and humid, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 28 to 32°C during that period. The Observatory's 30-year climate normals show late May averages near 30°C, though individual days regularly exceed 33°C during pre-monsoon heat spikes. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Meteorological Society's seasonal outlooks and any El Niño or La Niña advisories issued by March–April 2026, as these influence regional pressure patterns. The absence of any current trading activity (0% YES) may simply reflect that the market opened recently with minimal participation; on Betfair and Smarkets, comparable weather markets often see activity only in the final week before settlement, when actual forecasts become available and decimal odds shift more sharply than implied probabilities suggest.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.