Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport and recorded in Celsius. The settlement depends on Wunderground's historical weather database, which aggregates official station data across all daylight and evening hours. This market currently shows 0% implied probability across the major platforms, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

May temperatures in Mexico City historically cluster between 26–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during particularly dry years. The city's high altitude (2,250 metres) moderates extremes compared to lower Mexican regions, whilst the dry season (May falls at its tail end) creates conditions for elevated readings. Comparable May 25th data from previous years shows the airport station rarely records temperatures below 24°C or above 35°C, framing the likely settlement range. Kalshi and Betfair typically offer tighter decimal odds on weather markets than Polymarket's implied probability display, though Polymarket's fee structure (2% on both sides) often attracts larger volumes on niche weather contracts.

Traders should monitor Mexico City's rainfall patterns through April and early May, as unexpected precipitation could suppress temperatures. The El Niño/La Niña cycle status in spring 2026 will influence regional atmospheric conditions. Wunderground's data finalisation typically occurs within 48 hours of the settlement window close, meaning real-time station reporting from MMMX becomes the critical dependency. KYC requirements differ across platforms—Polymarket operates with lighter verification than Kalshi in most jurisdictions—which may affect which book accumulates trading volume as the date approaches.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.