Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the LaGuardia high on 2 August as a near-certain *sub-84°F* outcome, with the crowd showing **0% YES** against the contract’s specific temperature buckets. That means shares are trading as if the day’s peak at KLGA will stay below the market’s higher ranges, even though the market settles strictly on the highest reading reported for LaGuardia Airport Station on Wunderground, not on Central Park or another NYC site.[3][4]

For context, LaGuardia can run warmer than the city’s official Central Park station on hot summer days, and recent heat events have shown how quickly airport readings can jump: on 2 July 2026, LaGuardia hit **104°F**, well above Central Park’s 100°F and enough to push daily records at several nearby airports.[19] Against that backdrop, a 0% implied price is a strong statement about expected heat, but the contract still depends on the single daily maximum at one station, which can be affected by timing, cloud cover, sea breeze and convective showers.

A trader should watch the afternoon forecast evolution, any National Weather Service updates, and whether nearby storm lines or onshore winds cap the peak before the market’s settlement cutoff. The outcome is mechanically straightforward on Polymarket: users hold **USDC** on **Polygon**, and the winning temperature range resolves to redeemable **conditional tokens** if Wunderground’s LaGuardia daily high lands in that bucket.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.