Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices the LaGuardia Airport temperature contract for 3 August with **82–83°F** as the frontrunner at 35%, while **84–85°F** is close behind at 33%, so the market is effectively split around the low-to-mid 80s.[1] For a user holding USDC on Polygon, the practical question is whether the airport’s highest recorded reading lands inside one of those adjacent ranges, because only the winning conditional token redeems at $1 when Wunderground posts the final daily maximum for KLGA.[1]

That 0% implied chance is hard to reconcile with the live book, because the listed prices already embed a meaningful probability of an 80s Fahrenheit outcome rather than an extreme miss.[1] The nearby alternatives on the board suggest traders are reading this as a fairly ordinary summer heat day, not a breakaway hot spell or a cool washout, and the settlement rule makes the exact daily peak more important than the afternoon mean.[1] In comparable New York August weather setups, forecasts commonly cluster within a narrow band, which is why small shifts of 1–2°F can move value between adjacent outcome buckets rather than flipping the market outright.[2][7]

What to watch is the sequence of forecast updates, radar trends, and any late-day convective rain or cloud cover that could cap the airport’s maximum, because the contract settles to the highest temperature recorded during the day, not the forecast high at any single hourly point.[1] The market text also notes that revisions can still count until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late corrections to Wunderground’s KLGA history page matter for final resolution.[1] News flow on storm risk in the New York area is therefore relevant only insofar as it changes the realised peak before the reporting cut-off.[10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.