Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will settle into one of several predefined ranges. The National Weather Service maintains continuous temperature records at the station, with Wunderground providing historical access to daily highs. This market resolves based on the single highest reading across all hours on that date, measured in Fahrenheit. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, meaning traders must assess conditions before the afternoon peak temperatures typically occur in New York.

New York City's June temperatures cluster around 75–85°F historically, though extremes have reached into the low 90s during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability across major platforms suggests either extreme confidence in moderate conditions or sparse liquidity on this specific outcome band. Kalshi and Polymarket often diverge on niche weather markets due to different user bases and fee structures—Kalshi's regulatory framework in the US sometimes restricts certain weather ranges, whilst Polymarket's broader international reach can fragment liquidity across multiple outcome buckets. Betfair and Smarkets typically offer decimal odds formats that require conversion to implied probability, creating friction for traders comparing across platforms.

The relevant catalyst is the seasonal weather pattern emerging in late May 2026. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center issues monthly outlooks; any forecast of above-normal temperatures for the Northeast would shift market pricing. Traders should monitor Atlantic high-pressure systems and any tropical activity that could influence June conditions. Current atmospheric indices suggest normal seasonal progression, consistent with the crowd's apparent confidence in moderate ranges.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in NYC on June 6? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative UK?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.