Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to. The settlement window closes at noon UTC that day, meaning traders must account for the full 24-hour cycle of temperature variation at New York's primary commercial airport weather station. Unlike binary yes/no markets, this categorical structure requires precision: a peak of 87°F and 88°F occupy different buckets, and the difference between ranges can shift odds significantly across platforms.

Historical June temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variability. The National Weather Service records indicate June highs typically range from 75°F to 88°F, with extremes reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability currently displayed suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse liquidity in this particular market. On Polymarket, categorical weather markets often show wider spreads than their binary counterparts on Kalshi, where the simpler yes/no structure attracts tighter pricing. Betfair and Smarkets typically display decimal odds rather than implied probabilities, which can obscure the true consensus when comparing across platforms—a 1.5 decimal on one exchange may reflect different conviction than the equivalent percentage on another.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecast updates, which typically stabilise 5–7 days before the event. Atlantic weather patterns in early June can shift rapidly; tropical systems or high-pressure systems moving up the Eastern Seaboard would be the primary catalysts for temperature extremes. Fee structures vary materially: Polymarket charges 2% on winnings, whilst Kalshi's fixed-fee model may favour larger positions on this low-liquidity categorical market.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on June 7? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative UK?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.