Highest temperature in Paris on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying there is no chance the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station’s highest reading on 5 August 2026 lands in the specified temperature range. The contract settles in USDC on Polygon, with outcome shares backed by conditional tokens, so traders are really taking a view on where the day’s official maximum will print rather than on whether Paris is merely warm or cool.

For context, early-August Paris usually sits in the mid-20s Celsius, which makes a low single-digit or very high reading less likely than a result near the seasonal centre of mass. Current forecasts are pointing to a warm but not extreme day: AccuWeather’s monthly outlook shows Paris highs around 81°F, while French and local forecast outlets put 5 August near 28–29°C in the afternoon, with cloud cover increasing later in the day[1][2][5]. For a market like this, the practical question is whether the airport station logs an isolated peak above the mainstream city forecast before temperatures ease. That is why a 0% price can still be sensitive to small changes in the forecast envelope, especially if the market’s range is narrow.

The main catalysts are the same ones a Polymarket user would watch on any weather contract: updated short-range forecasts, any shift in cloud cover, wind, and humidity, and the actual station observations published through the day before Wunderground locks in the final daily high. If the afternoon warming arrives on schedule, the range most likely to matter is the one around the forecast peak rather than the overnight minimum. Traders should also remember that settlement depends on the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station record, not central Paris, so localised station differences can decide the outcome even when the broader city forecast looks straightforward[2][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.