Highest temperature in Paris on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market settles based on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, which captures official readings throughout the day. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning final temperature data must be confirmed by then—a constraint that differs from some competing platforms' approaches to weather resolution, where cutoff times vary by jurisdiction and data-provider lag.

Paris's May temperatures typically range from 15°C to 22°C, though extremes occasionally breach 25°C. The 0% implied probability across current positions suggests traders are either avoiding the market entirely or pricing in specific temperature thresholds as highly unlikely. Historical May records at Le Bourget show variability: the station has recorded highs of 28°C in May during warmer years, but such readings remain uncommon. Comparing this to Kalshi's weather markets, which often show tighter clustering around seasonal norms, the zero-probability positioning here may reflect either sparse liquidity or consensus that certain temperature bands fall outside realistic May conditions.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-May onwards, particularly jet-stream positioning and Atlantic pressure systems that drive continental temperatures. Wunderground's data-refresh schedule and any potential station maintenance could affect settlement timing—a detail worth verifying against Betfair or Smarkets' equivalent weather markets, which sometimes diverge on data-source reliability. The market's reliance on a single airport station means localised conditions matter; urban heat effects at Le Bourget differ from broader Paris readings.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Paris on May 23? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.