Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seattle's highest temperature on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport and measured in Fahrenheit. The settlement window closes at noon UTC that day, meaning traders must assess spring weather patterns in the Pacific Northwest before late morning local time. Resolution depends on historical data published by Weather Underground, which aggregates official airport station readings.

Seattle's May temperatures typically range between 55°F and 70°F, with historical highs on this specific date clustering in the low-to-mid 70s. The 0% crowd probability across major platforms suggests either extreme confidence in a narrow range or sparse liquidity on outlier temperature buckets. Polymarket's fee structure (2% maker, 2% taker) and Kalshi's regulatory framework (US-only, lower fees at 0.5%–1%) create different trader incentives; Betfair and Smarkets, operating under UK gambling licences, display decimal odds rather than implied probabilities, which can obscure how the crowd actually values tail-risk temperature scenarios. The absence of trading activity on higher-temperature ranges may reflect genuine meteorological consensus or simply reflect that alternative platforms haven't attracted sufficient volume to price these outcomes.

Spring weather systems moving through the Pacific Northwest in late May depend on high-pressure positioning and marine layer persistence. The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts roughly 10 days before the settlement date; any unusual ridge of high pressure or early heat dome would shift probabilities materially. Traders should monitor mid-May forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center and track whether atmospheric patterns favour warm or cool conditions across the region.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.