Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this Incheon Airport temperature contract priced at **0% YES** today, which means the market is effectively saying there is no meaningful chance of the top temperature landing in the YES band under the current structure. The contract settles on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon Intl Airport Station on 5 August 2026, with outcome data taken from Wunderground, and the on-chain position is held as conditional tokens on Polygon and margined in USDC, so traders are really betting on a single station reading rather than Seoul citywide weather.

The historical frame is straightforward: early August in Seoul is normally hot, humid, and rain-prone, with average highs around the low 30s Celsius and occasional spikes well above that. Forecast services for August 2026 already point to Seoul highs in the high 20s to high 30s Celsius, and one market-relevant comparison is that the city’s record August high has reached 38.2°C, showing that extreme prints are not impossible even if they are uncommon.[12][15][2] For a station-based contract at Incheon, the key question is whether the airport site reaches the target range rather than whether the broader capital region feels oppressive.

Traders should watch the live short-range forecast, radar, and any heatwave or rain updates through the day, because cloud, showers, and coastal influence can keep the airport’s peak below inland Seoul readings. Korean media reported a severe heat wave warning for the Seoul metropolitan area and said Seoul could reach 38°C today, while also noting showers in parts of the western regions, which matters because a brief convective shower can cap the day’s maximum at the airport station.[1] The practical Polymarket angle is that the final settlement depends on the highest observed reading before the window closes, not on the afternoon headline forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.