Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** right now, so the market is implying effectively no chance that the Incheon Intl Airport Station’s top reading on 6 August 2026 lands in the YES band. The on-chain setup matters here: positions are traded in **USDC** on **Polygon**, and settlement depends on the resolved temperature bucket for that specific station rather than Seoul city generally.

That zero price is unusual against the weather backdrop. Regional forecasts in the search results point to a severe heat episode across the Seoul metro area, with Seoul around **39°C** and Incheon around **38°C** on 6 August, while the KMA-linked reporting describes a heatwave emergency warning and notes that Seoul has only exceeded 39°C once in the modern record, at **39.6°C** in 2018.[2][3][11] Seasonal context also leans hot: August highs in Seoul are typically in the mid-30s °C equivalent, and historical August averages peak around 6 August.[1][16]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s official temperature path, not broader summer averages. The contract settles from **Wunderground’s daily high at Incheon Intl Airport Station**, so late-morning sunshine, sea-breeze effects, cloud cover, and any rain band timing can matter more than the city forecast headline.[5] Because the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**, positions are exposed to the part of the local day when the temperature can still climb, and any deviation from the current heatwave forecast could shift the final bucket.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.