Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** right now, which implies no visible market support for Incheon Intl Airport Station’s daily high ending up in a YES-qualifying range. The market settles from the **highest temperature recorded on 7 August 2026** at the airport station, so a trade here is really a view on one specific daily maximum, not on Seoul’s broader weather story. Because the contract is a Polygon-based conditional token market funded in USDC, the relevant question for holders is whether the final Wunderground reading lands inside the chosen temperature band by the settlement cut-off.

For context, August in Seoul is usually hot but not uniformly extreme. Long-run climate data shows daily highs in August typically around **81°F to 88°F** and falling only modestly through the month, which would normally point to an upper-20s Celsius outcome rather than a very low one.[1][12] But the current setup is more aggressive than average: SBS reported heatwave warnings across the Greater Seoul area and a projected **39°C** high for Seoul on 7 August, after 37.9°C the previous day.[2] If that burst of heat reaches the airport station, the market could move sharply away from today’s 0% pricing.

Traders should watch the final-hour forecast path, not just the city headline. Local forecasts currently vary materially, with some sources showing low-30s Celsius and patchy rain, while others imply hotter conditions and humidity-driven discomfort.[3][4][14] For settlement, the only thing that matters is the Wunderground daily maximum at Incheon Intl Airport Station, so late changes in cloud cover, showers, or maritime airflow around the airport can matter more than the broader Seoul forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.