Highest temperature in Seoul on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing this Seoul airport heat contract with **31°C** as the leading outcome at **37%**, just ahead of **30°C** at **32%**, which suggests the crowd expects a fairly tight distribution around the low 30s rather than a big swing to either side.[1] The market settles against the day’s highest temperature at Incheon Intl Airport Station on Wunderground, so the relevant question for holders of the USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon is the airport’s recorded peak, not broader city averages or feels-like readings.[1]

That pricing sits in line with the broader July climate pattern in South Korea, when averages are hot and humid and daily highs often sit near **30°C**; the country’s monsoon season can still bring heavy rain late into the month, but it can also leave short windows for stronger afternoon heating if cloud cover breaks.[2] Recent reporting has also highlighted a return to extreme summer heat across South Korea, with forecasts of highs in the low to mid-30s and persistent tropical nights, which helps explain why the market is not anchored to a sub-30 outcome.[3]

For traders, the main catalysts are the daytime forecast at Incheon, cloud and rainfall timing, and whether the airport gets enough sun between morning and early afternoon to push the maximum above the 31°C band. Because the contract resolves from the Wunderground daily history page, a last-moment rain cell, sea breeze, or delayed peak around local afternoon hours can change which temperature bucket wins, even if the morning setup looks stable.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.