Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 1 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport's weather station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on data from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific date and location, with temperature measured in Celsius. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or minimal trading activity on this specific market across platforms.

Seoul's early June climate typically sits in the 20–28°C range, with occasional peaks toward 30°C during warm spells. Historical June 1st maxima at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation; the airport station has recorded highs between 22°C and 31°C on this date over the past two decades, depending on whether monsoon systems or high-pressure systems dominate. Comparable weather prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi tend to see tighter probability distributions once meteorological data becomes available 7–10 days prior to settlement, whereas longer-dated markets like this one often reflect wide uncertainty bands. Betfair's decimal odds format and lower KYC requirements in certain jurisdictions can attract different trader demographics than Polymarket's implied probability display, potentially explaining divergent odds across books.

The primary catalyst is the Korea Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecast, typically updated daily and accessible through their English portal. Any significant weather system—tropical moisture, cold fronts, or blocking high pressure—announced in late May will shift trader positioning. Traders should monitor mid-May forecasts closely, as June 1st falls within the reliable forecast window. Smarkets' commission structure and Kalshi's regulatory constraints may affect liquidity differently than Polymarket's fee model as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.