Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will determine which range this market settles into. The resolution uses Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific location, with traders required to toggle the temperature unit to Celsius via the platform's settings gear. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular range or minimal liquidity and attention on this specific date-location pairing.

Seoul's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early monsoon season, with historical highs typically ranging between 26–30°C, though occasional heat waves push readings above 32°C. The 2018 heat wave saw June temperatures exceed 33°C across the region, whilst cooler Junes have peaked near 24°C. Comparing across platforms, Polymarket's binary or range-based structure differs markedly from Kalshi's regulated US-weather contracts and Betfair's decimal odds presentation—each platform's fee structure and KYC requirements affect whether international traders can access Seoul weather markets at all. Smarkets' European focus means limited depth on Korean weather, whereas Polymarket's global user base typically generates tighter spreads on Asian location markets.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts released in May 2026, which typically signal whether the monsoon onset will arrive early or late. Upper-atmosphere pressure patterns and sea-surface temperatures in the Western Pacific drive June outcomes materially; any official heat-wave warnings issued in early June would shift probabilities sharply. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 7 June, requiring traders to account for timezone conversion between Seoul local time and Wunderground's recorded data.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.