Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. This market settles against historical weather data from Weather Underground, which aggregates hourly observations from Seoul's primary aviation meteorological station. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, though the actual temperature reading will be finalised once the full calendar day's data is available.

Seoul's late May climate typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with historical highs around 26–28°C, though anomalies occur. The 0% crowd probability across prediction platforms suggests either extreme confidence in a specific outcome already priced elsewhere, or sparse liquidity preventing meaningful positions. Polymarket's fee structure (2% maker/taker) differs from Kalshi's tiered approach and Betfair's commission model, which can shift effective odds on low-volume weather markets; traders comparing platforms should account for these spreads when evaluating decimal odds versus implied probabilities on niche meteorological events.

The relevant catalyst is the East Asian monsoon pattern developing through May 2026. South Korea's Meteorological Administration publishes monthly forecasts and weekly updates that influence atmospheric conditions; any significant tropical system or heat dome forming over the Korean Peninsula in late May would shift temperature expectations materially. Current seasonal models from the KMA and international centres (ECMWF, GFS) will be the primary data sources traders monitor. Incheon's coastal location and airport elevation also moderate extremes compared to central Seoul, a detail affecting how traders interpret comparable historical days.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative UK?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.