Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's summer heat peaks in late July, with daily maxima typically ranging between 32–36°C during the monsoon season. On 28 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Pudong International Airport Station will determine which range bracket settles the market. The current 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing this as either a technical artefact or reflecting genuine uncertainty about which specific temperature band will occur—a counterintuitive signal given that Shanghai's July climatology is well-documented and fairly predictable.

Historical data from Shanghai's meteorological records shows that temperatures exceeding 37°C on any given day in late July occur in roughly 15–25% of years, whilst readings above 39°C are considerably rarer. The 2013 heatwave pushed readings to 40.6°C, and the 2022 summer saw multiple days above 38°C. These precedents establish that extreme outliers exist but remain uncommon enough that mid-range brackets (33–36°C) capture the modal outcome across most years. The 0% pricing may reflect low liquidity or a mismatch between the resolution window and trader expectations rather than genuine consensus about the underlying event.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 28 July, particularly any alerts for heat domes or sustained high-pressure systems over the Yangtze River Delta. El Niño or La Niña phase strength in mid-2026 will influence regional atmospheric patterns. Pudong's urban heat island effect—intensified by airport infrastructure and surrounding development—typically elevates readings 1–2°C above rural stations, a factor worth isolating when comparing historical benchmarks to settlement data from Wunderground.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.