Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport and settled against historical data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle across Shanghai's timezone (UTC+8). Current crowd pricing shows 0% implied probability, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Shanghai's late May climate is highly predictable within narrow bounds. Over the past decade, maximum temperatures on 25 May have ranged between 28–32°C, with an average near 30°C. The city transitions into early summer during this period, with monsoon patterns beginning to establish. Historical volatility is modest—extreme outliers above 35°C or below 25°C on this date are exceptionally rare. This seasonal stability typically anchors prediction markets on weather outcomes, as meteorological variance narrows compared to winter or autumn months when frontal systems create sharper swings.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecast updates, which typically refine significantly 5–7 days before settlement. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as early heat waves or unexpected cool maritime air masses—would surface in these official bulletins before appearing in Weather Underground's historical records. Kalshi and Betfair's decimal-odds interfaces may display fractional movements more granularly than Polymarket's percentage-based system on tight ranges like this, making platform choice relevant for scalping small probability shifts. KYC requirements remain consistent across major venues for this category, though settlement verification speed varies; Weather Underground's historical data typically finalises within 24 hours of the settlement window close.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.